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The government claims to have increased the annual budget by 200 times and says, "I have managed to reduce inflation to 15 percent."

However, the figures cited by domestic and international institutions working on economic issues differ from this.

For example, the World Bank recently released a report stating that predicting Ethiopia's economic situation is challenging.

Some also say that the inflation rate is 20 percent. Where does this discrepancy come from?

Regarding the changes in various economic sectors in Ethiopia, the information provided by the government and non-governmental institutions often differs and sometimes conflicts.

For instance, the government repeatedly emphasizes that the country's budget is growing annually, that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is increasing, and that debt pressure is decreasing.

It also states that the per capita income of Ethiopian citizens is among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.

On the other hand, the Ethiopian Economists Association, citing a recent study it conducted, mentioned that although the GDP is growing, the per capita income of citizens has been declining over time.

In particular, it stated that since the 2019 Ethiopian calendar (Gregorian 2016/2017), GDP growth and per capita income growth have been moving in opposite directions.

It is also worth noting that the government recently announced that the 1.93 trillion birr budget approved for 2018 (Ethiopian calendar) is the highest so far.

While the Ethiopian government points out that the budget has grown by 200 percent over the past 20 years, the Ethiopian Economists Association, on its part, stated that when measured in terms of real purchasing power, the budget has been decreasing rather than increasing.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also released a report months ago stating that inflation in Ethiopia will continue at 20 percent during the current 2025 Ethiopian calendar year (Gregorian 2012/2013).

It also predicted that it would be difficult to reduce inflation to a single digit by the 2028 Ethiopian calendar year (Gregorian 2015/2016).

The IMF report came after the "National Bank of Ethiopia's Monetary Policy Committee" stated in the past month of March (Gregorian) that the annual inflation rate had reached 15 percent in February (Gregorian).

The World Bank, while assessing the economic situation of countries from July 2025 to June 2026 (Gregorian) according to the Ethiopian calendar, also expressed that predicting Ethiopia's situation is challenging.

However, the Minister of Finance, Mr. Ahmed Shide, stated that the economy is expected to grow by 8.9 percent next year. So why do such information conflicts occur? Aren't there scientific methods that everyone can follow when preparing the data?

We posed this question to the economist Dr. Abule Mehari, who said that the information is related to the perspective from which it is presented.

Dr. Abule explained that the methods chosen to understand economic changes, among other reasons, are also causes of the discrepancy.

He stated that the results of data prepared using inflation, foreign exchange reserves, and exchange rates will differ.

Dr. Abule recalled that one piece of data is often based on another, and sometimes this becomes the source of the difference.

For example, different institutions release different information regarding Ethiopia's population; using that different data for a study will yield different results, he said.

He also pointed out that the lack of a recent and accurate census showing the correct number is the root of the problem.

Some also present economic growth in connection with the expansion of visible basic infrastructure on the ground.

Others say, "If the growth does not bring change to the lives of the society, how can it be called growth?"

The government, on its part, responds by saying that it is showing improvement in the lives of citizens as well.